DEAL NUMBER 40 PEACEFIRE
ALERT 6/12/26
🚨🔍 Where the Iran conflict stands: Trump says deal in days — Iran says ‘speculative’ — Strait remains closed
President Trump called off another round of nighttime military strikes against Iran, then pivoted to announce that a deal is imminent – possibly signed in Europe this weekend, with JD Vance representing the US.
🇮🇷 Foreign Ministry spokesman Baghaei says reports of a signing are “speculative.” Most of the text was ready, but the US kept changing its positions. Iran will not compromise on its red lines. The Strait of Hormuz remains closed due to “illegal US actions.”
✡️ Netanyahu’s office claims Trump assured Netanyahu that any final agreement would require Iran to remove enriched nuclear material, dismantle enrichment infrastructure, limit missiles, and end support for regional armed groups. Israel says it is not a party to the deal. Trump has not publicly confirmed any of this.
⚔️ Reality on the water: IRGC naval forces confronted an oil tanker attempting to transit the strait. Explosions were heard in southern Sirik County. The IRGC warns that any vessel attempting to pass will be treated as a security threat and “dealt with severely.” Ship captains have been told to remain anchored until further notice.
Trump has repeatedly claimed an imminent peace deal – all while struggling to restrain Israeli attacks and continuing to strike Iranian civilian infrastructure. If there is real progress in Iran‑US negotiations, it should be visible on paper and, most importantly, on the battlefield – not in Trump’s rants.
👍 Boost us | Chat | @geopolitics_prime
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⚡🇺🇸🇮🇷Bloomberg: U.S. officials have described the negotiations between the U.S. and Iran as less so talks and more an unwieldy process in which messages between the two countries take days to move between the two.
One official described the Iranian system of receiving messages, complicated by internet throttling in Iran, as frustratingly slow and opaque, adding that should the U.S. give into all of Iran’s demands, it would take five days to sign an accord.
Proposals from the U.S. are often brought to Supreme Leader of Iran Khamenei via human courier due to fears his location will be revealed after he was injured during U.S.-Israelis strikes on March 1st.
@wfwitness
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BREAKING: The average price of US ground beef rises +13% YoY in May to a record $7.06 per pound, with prices now up +58% since 2020.
Steak prices surged +16% YoY to $12.80 per pound, the 2nd-highest on record.
This comes as the US cattle herd has shrunk to its lowest in 75 years, with drought conditions, elevated production costs, and a New World screwworm outbreak in Texas limiting supply recovery.
Meanwhile, nearly 80% of US cattle are currently located in areas facing dryness or drought, threatening to keep beef prices elevated well into 2027.
American consumers are paying record prices for beef.
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ASIA ENERGY CRISIS AT ‘WORST’ CASE SCENARIO, ADB WARNS-FT ...
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MUSK’S SPACEX RAISES RECORD $75 BN IN WORLD’S BIGGEST IPO AT $135 A SHARE-BS ...
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UKRAINIAN DRONES HAVE HIT RUSSIA’S NIZHNEKAMSK REFINERY-WSN ...
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IRAN SAYS NO FINAL DECISION MADE ON POSSIBLE US AGREEMENT, IRNA SAYS - RTRS ...
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⚡️🇱🇧🇱🇧🇮🇱 Hezbollah has released their first statement regarding operation targeting Israeli forces in southern Lebanon for the day:
In response to Israeli ceasefire violations on southern Lebanon, resulting in civilian casualties, we targeted a gathering of Israeli military vehicles and soldiers in the town of Shamaa between 23:00 and 00:00 on Thursday, June 11, 2026, with successive waves of rocket barrages and artillery shelling.
@wfwitness
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🇩🇪🤡⚔️🇷🇺Germany is preparing for a possible war with Russia by 2029 - POLITICO
Germany must be ready for a possible military confrontation with Russia by 2029 or even earlier, said the commander of the German Army, Lieutenant General Christian Freuding.
“We must be ready. We must be ready to fight,” he said.
The German general emphasized that the 2029 deadline is not only Berlin’s assessment, but also NATO intelligence data.
Germany is accelerating weapons purchases and expanding the capabilities of the defense industry.
Freuding says that Berlin cannot rely solely on long-term rearmament programs, which will take years to develop and implement.
🎙Subscribe
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BIG: The U.S. plans to significantly reduce the military assets it provides to NATO in Europe.
Planned cuts include reducing fighter jets from about 150 to 100, cutting surveillance and refueling aircraft, and reallocating key naval assets such as an aircraft carrier, a missile submarine, and bomber forces.
Source: NYT
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Elon Musk has become the world’s first trillionaire after SpaceX priced its IPO at $135 per share, valuing the company at about $75 billion.
Based on his SpaceX and Tesla holdings, Musk’s stake is worth more than $1.1 trillion.
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New details of a 14-point draft Iran–US memorandum:
Immediate and permanent ceasefire on all fronts, including Lebanon.
US commitment not to interfere in Iran’s internal affairs and to respect Iran’s sovereignty.
Full lifting of the naval blockade within 30 days.
US commitment to withdraw its forces from areas surrounding Iran.
Reopening of the Strait of Hormuz within 30 days under Iranian arrangements.
Suspension of sanctions on Iranian oil, petrochemicals, and related exports, with full access to the resulting revenues.
US and its allies to provide reconstruction plans for Iran worth at least $300 billion.
A 60-day negotiation period to reach a final agreement on nuclear issues and the complete removal of US primary and secondary sanctions, as well as related UN Security Council and IAEA measures.
Iran reaffirms its NPT commitment not to develop nuclear weapons.
During negotiations, the US will not deploy additional forces to the region or impose new sanctions.
Release of $24 billion in frozen Iranian assets during the 60-day negotiation period, with half made available before talks begin.
Establishment of a monitoring mechanism to oversee implementation of the agreement.
The final agreement will be endorsed by a UN Security Council resolution.
Final negotiations will begin only after the release of half of Iran’s frozen assets, suspension of oil sanctions, and lifting of the naval blockade.
The final deal will focus solely on uranium enrichment, enriched material, sanctions relief, and Iran’s economic reconstruction.
Iran’s missile program and support for resistance groups are excluded from the agenda.
Source: Mehr
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Weeks of US and Israeli bombing targeted Iran’s underground missile complexes, including a major site near Yazd.
Despite repeated attacks, residents and analysts say Iran continued launching missiles throughout the conflict.
While the bombardment appears to have reduced Iran’s firing rate and damaged tunnel entrances, intelligence assessments and Western diplomats believe Tehran retained much of its missile arsenal, launchers, and underground infrastructure. Many facilities were reportedly reopened or repaired within hours or days.
Source: FT
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Iran’s IRNA:
Iran will make no commitment regarding the transfer of management of the Strait of Hormuz.
The future administration of the strait will be treated as a regional matter and resolved through dialogue and joint decision-making between Tehran and Oman.
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Netanyahu:
As long as I am the Prime Minister of Israel, Iran will not have nuclear weapons.
President Trump and I are in complete agreement on this issue.
For more than 30 years, I have been at the forefront of the international struggle against Iran’s nuclear program.
Were it not for this struggle, Iran would have long ago possessed atomic bombs to destroy Israel.
Iran is working to destroy the Jewish state, and I have dedicated my life to preventing them from doing so.
As long as I am Prime Minister of Israel, that will not happen.
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⚡️🇮🇷🇺🇸 IRIB: Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmaeil Baghaei has said that any possible understanding with the United States is in the internal finalisation stage and no final decision has been made.
Relevant military authorities must reach a conclusion on every detail of the text.
Official announcement will be made only after a final result is achieved. Details about the signing ceremony are largely media speculation and will be discussed at a later stage.
@wfwitness
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Israel is urging the US not to unfreeze Iranian assets as part of a potential ceasefire deal.
Source: CNN
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REVIEW AND DECISION-MAKING PROCESS IN IRAN NOT FINALIZED. ANNOUNCEMENT OF SUNDAY AND THE LOCATION OF GENEVA ARE COMPLETELY DENIED - FARS NEWS ...
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🇺🇸 Vance Boelter pleaded guilty Thursday to assassinating Minnesota House Speaker Melissa Hortman and her husband, Mark Hortman, and to shooting State Senator John Hoffman and his wife, Yvette Hoffman, in attacks that prosecutors described as politically motivated.
• Prosecutors said Vance Boelter carried out the shootings while disguised as a police officer and driving a vehicle made to resemble a squad car.
• As part of the plea agreement, federal prosecutors will not seek the death penalty.
@CIG_telegram
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🇨🇳🇮🇷⚡️ — China’s sharp reduction in crude oil imports during the Iran War has helped prevent a major spike in global oil prices, despite the prolonged disruption of the Strait of Hormuz, WSJ writes.
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🇵🇰🇶🇦🇦🇪🕊🇺🇸 After Trump threatened to attack Iran, Pakistan, Qatar and the UAE scrambled to stop him
Senior officials from Qatar, the UAE and Pakistan rang Trump as he was threatening to strike Iran “very hard tonight.” Their assurance of a deal in reach convinced him to pull back.
The calls, which have not been previously reported, came from Qatari Emir Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani, United Arab Emirates President Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan and Pakistani defense chief Asim Munir, according to two administration officials and a diplomat briefed on the calls. Both were granted anonymity to discuss a sensitive diplomatic mediation.
These countries have sway over Tehran and Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei, Trump said Thursday, and their assurance that a deal was near led him to walk back his attack plans , according to one of the administration officials.
📝: Until someone leaks the draft of the MOU, assume every story about a “deal” is fake. Iran’s neighbours don’t want to see their industries bombed again and are desperate enough to make up lies about “deals” to Trump in order to prevent the war from regaining the intensity it had.
🔗 https://www.politico.com/news/2026/06/11/gulf-leaders-called-trump-to-stop-him-from-hitting-iran-it-worked-for-now-00960157
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🇮🇷💸🚫 — IRGC-linked Mehr News Agency denied reports that $3 billion had been transferred from the United Arab Emirates to Iran, saying none of the Islamic Republic’s frozen financial assets have been released.
The response came after reports alleged that Tehran’s announcement of a ceasefire followed the delivery of a US message through a Qatari delegation on June 8 and coincided with the transfer of $3 billion from Abu Dhabi to Tehran aboard an Emirati Boeing 737 aircraft.
Mehr said that, to date, none of Iran’s blocked funds had been unfrozen.
The news published about transferring 3 billion dollars from the UAE to Iran by Emirates Airlines is false, and no blocked financial resources of Iran have been released so far.
It is worth mentioning that some media claimed the reason for Iran’s announcement of a ceasefire was the transfer of a message from the Americans by the Qatari delegation on June 8 (Khordad 18) regarding controlling Israel in Lebanon, and simultaneously transferring 3 billion dollars via an Emirates Boeing 737 plane from Abu Dhabi to Tehran.
This news claimed that despite the imposed air restrictions, the plane landed at Mehrabad Airport at 1 PM Tehran time.
https://t.me/mehrnews/386351
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Happy Russia Day
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💥💥💥President Trump just sent a GRAVE WARNING to Iran after they leaked FAKE TERMS of a “deal” to the Fake News: “They better get their act together, and FAST!”
“The terms that Iran leaked out to the Fake News have NOTHING to do with the terms that were agreed to, in writing. What they said, including their weak and pathetic statement on having a deal, bears no relation to the truth. Very dishonorable people to deal with. With them, there is no such thing as dealing in good faith. AMAZING! Also, their totally rebuffed Drone attack last night against Indian Ships leaving the Hormuz Strait is TOTALLY UNACCEPTABLE.”
Ht @ericldaugh
Join the fight @MelissaRedpill
FreedomForce dot live
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Putin:
A number of countries joined NATO after 2022 in order to get “a piece of the pie” in the event of Russia’s defeat.
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BREAKING: The SpaceX, $SPCX, IPO is now expected to close above $2.2 trillion in market cap today.
The IPO has now drawn $350 BILLION in total demand. https://t.co/AAqk6IQVmB
(@TheKobeissiLetter)
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Many are asking why is SpaceX, $SPXC, NOT trading yet?
Here’s exactly how the IPO process works and when the shares will be available to trade (Bookmark this):
The IPO was quoted at 9:50 AM ET and was expected to begin trading at 10:00 AM ET, but that does NOT guarantee shares will trade at that time.
Before trading begins, Nasdaq must complete a price-discovery auction where buy and sell orders are collected and matched.
At around 9:50 AM ET, “first indications” came out which are essentially a “gauge” of where the stock will open.
The first indications on $SPXC came in at $175/share, or a ~30% premium to the $135/share IPO price.
During this process:
1. Orders are entered, but no trades occur yet
2. Nasdaq continuously updates the indicative opening price
3. The opening price is adjusted until supply and demand are balanced
4. Only then does the opening auction occur and the first trade print
For major IPOs, delays are common such as Google in 2004 and Meta in 2012 which saw their first trades over 2 hours after the US market opened.
We expect the SpaceX IPO to open for trading within the next 60 minutes.
Buckle up for a historic day.
(@TheKobeissiLetter)
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🇪🇺📉 European defence stocks crash due to low investor trust in Europe’s capacity to fund their militaries
The Stoxx Europe Targeted Defence index has fallen more than 15 per cent since its peak in January, with much of that coming since the start of the US-Israeli war against Iran, wiping billions of euros from the values of companies including BAE Systems, Rolls-Royce, Thales, Leonardo and Rheinmetall.
The fall marks an abrupt reversal in what had become one of the biggest trades in European equity markets in recent years. The defence index had risen more than 40 per cent every year since 2022, when Russia invaded Ukraine, and in 2025 it almost doubled, fuelled by Germany’s massive infrastructure and military investment plans and a Nato agreement to raise defence spending to 5 per cent of GDP.
“Last year was all about ‘how great is this [spending]’,” said Charles Armitage, European defence analyst at Citi. “This year is all about ‘how are we going to pay for it?’”
Military spending plans have come under renewed scrutiny after government borrowing costs around the world soared this year because of the Iran war and the near-closure of the Strait of Hormuz, as the prospect of higher inflation raises expectations of interest rate rises.
At the same time, governments face growing pressure to offer relief to businesses and consumers hit by higher energy prices, putting a strain on state budgets in energy-importing Europe.
Germany this month told France it will withdraw from plans to develop a joint fighter jet - the central element of the €100bn Future Combat Air System programme, which was set to be one of the continent’s biggest defence projects.
Meanwhile, Czech Prime Minister Andrej Babiš told the FT last week the country would “probably” miss the Nato spending benchmark of 2 per cent of GDP.
In Europe, Rheinmetall, Airbus and Thales all disappointed with their reported revenues in the first quarter of 2026, raising questions about whether investors had priced in too much optimism for those companies from greater defence spending.
🔗 https://www.ft.com/content/1fa66019-c241-46f8-b9e4-7b3ac8575904
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European Military Tech?
Gepard — the “masterpiece” of German military engineering, spectacularly burning after being hit by a cheap Geranium-4 drone.
Expensive, sophisticated, “modern” — yet completely helpless against cheap Russian Geranium-4 drones. One precise strike, and millions of euros go up in smoke.